Is It Time For Jeb Bush To Drop Out?

HotAir.com:

Here’s the only problem: What evidence is there that Bush can’t come back and win? The working theory behind Trump’s (slight) downturn in the polls since the last debate is that voters are only now starting to get serious about the race. If that’s true, then the Bush boomlet might still be coming. If you believe the last NBC/WSJ poll taken in New Hampshire, Bush is still in third place there with 11 percent, just 10 points behind a weakening Trump and five points behind Fiorina, whom few believe will win the nomination. With a ton of money in the bank and continued viability in his must-win state, there’s no reason for him to get out soon. Purely as an ego matter, why would he want to bow to his protege Rubio by throwing in the towel when he and Rubio are separated in most polls by just a handful of points? And whatever you think of Rahn’s assessment of Dubya as a disastrous president, the fact is that Republican voters don’t agree. Go look again at Bush 43’s favorable rating among GOP voters. It’s entirely possible that having George on the trail for Jeb will lend him the bit of stature he needs for undecided center-right voters to take a closer look at him.

The only scenario where it would make sense for Bush to quit in early October, I think, is if Trump and some other credible center-right challenger like Rubio or Kasich had already bounced out to big leads and made it a two-man race. In that case, Jeb might tell himself that it’s unrealistic to think he’ll be able to catch the center-righty, even with tons of money in the bank and Dubya’s help on the trail, and also that Trump is so serious a threat to win the nomination that the responsible thing to do, a la Scott Walker, is unite behind the leading “electable” alternative. Neither of those conditions obtain right now, though — Trump’s lead is shrinking, not expanding, and second place is up for grabs among Rubio, Carson, and Fiorina. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next six weeks or so, though, if Rubio continues to inch up and Trump continues to inch down. In that case, Jeb may decide that the scariest prospect of the campaign — Trump as nominee — has become sufficiently unlikely that he can just continue to run his race for another two months and see if he can catch Marco in New Hampshire. If not, fine. Maybe he’ll drop out then and spare Rubio a death match in Florida. If so, great. Then he’s back on track for the nomination. Until it becomes a two-man race, though, this probably isn’t even worth thinking about — unless it turns out that Jeb hates campaigning so much that he’s actually eager to find excuses to quietly retire.

Exit question: What if we end up with a two-man race between Rubio and Ted Cruz, with Jeb Bush more than 10 points behind both men? Would he quit and endorse Rubio then?

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