Shock Iowa Poll from CNN: Donald Trump Leads Ted Cruz by 11, Bernie Sanders Leads Hillary Clinton by Eight

HotAir.com:

I’m going to argue that Cruz fans shouldn’t freak out about this poll, but first let me grab a change of underwear.

Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, is in third at 14%, the only other Republican in double digits. Ben Carson failed to register half of Rubio’s support and is in fourth place at 6%…

[L]ikely Republican caucus-goers are more divided when it comes to who would best handle foreign policy, with Trump (27%), Rubio (26%) and Cruz (25%) in a virtual three-way split. On the question of which candidate better represents Republican values, 29% choose Cruz, 28% side with Trump and 15% favor Rubio. Cruz holds an edge as the one who would better handle social issues, however, with 29% to Trump’s 18%, while 12% name Rubio, 10% Carson and 9% former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Asked which candidate better represents Republican values, immigration heretic Marco Rubio pulls barely half what conservative heretic Donald Trump does. Rubio has a 94 percent rating from Heritage Action. Turn that thought over in your mind a few times.
 
Time to panic? Well, yes, soon. But not yet. Another bit from CNN:

The sampling is key for both leaders: Only including voters who previously caucused in their party’s most recent competitive caucus, Cruz is neck-and-neck with Trump, with 30% for Cruz to 28% for Trump. Rubio is steady at 16% in that sample.

Of Democrats who caucused in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders, 55% to 38%.

Essentially the poll’s telling us what we already knew: There are many more Trump fans than Cruz fans among the broader population, including in Iowa, and if Trump can get them to turn out on caucus night he’s going to win. Whether he can get them to turn out is the great unsolved mystery of the primary. Cruz has the best organization in Iowa; Trump’s organization is more of a black box, but some of the glimpses inside haven’t been encouraging. On the other hand, Trumpmania’s bound to bring some people out to caucus who’ve never done it before even if Trump’s ground game is weak. If he’s already within two points of Cruz among people who caucused in 2012, how does he lose once those additional first-time caucusgoers are added?

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